Evidence hub · Updated 1 Oct 2026
A dated, sourced reference to what is proven, what is promising and what is still unknown in early cancer detection. It covers screening trials by cancer, the 2026 results and regulatory decisions on multi-cancer blood tests, the real roles of protein biomarkers, and the frameworks for judging new tests. Every status line carries a date, because guidance changed faster in 2025–2026 than in any recent period.
Proven by randomized trials
Breast, cervical, colorectal, lung and (modestly) prostate screening
Multi-cancer blood tests
None FDA approved; FDA panel backed Galleri 23 Sep 2026, decision pending
Blood tests for colorectal cancer
Two FDA approved; second-line in ACS 2026 guideline
US Preventive Services Task Force
Not met since mid-2025; new members named 17 Sep 2026
OncoFirm™ status
Point-of-care protein assays in development; research use only
On this page
Status at a glance
Sources: trial publications and regulatory records in the references. Status is as of 1 October 2026 and is reviewed when a listed decision changes.
Definitions
For the case for early detection, see why early detection matters; for access gaps worldwide, the global need for affordable diagnostics.
Reading the evidence
Every early-detection test climbs the same ladder. Rung numbers loosely follow the five phases of biomarker development described by Pepe and colleagues, and the analytic-to-clinical steps of the CDC’s ACCE model.
Stage shift is the contested middle rung. A 2025 meta-analysis of 57 screening trials found that reductions in late-stage incidence correlated with reductions in mortality (correlation 0.69 overall; 0.91 for lung, 0.79 for breast, 0.58 for colorectal). A 2026 simulation by Sasieni, Brentnall and Duffy showed that a correlation of 0.41 can appear even when late stage has no causal effect on mortality, and argued that a surrogate needs causal reasoning, not meta-analysis alone. The UKCTOCS ovarian trial is the warning case: screening shifted cancers to earlier stages yet did not reduce deaths.
Evidence by cancer
| Cancer | US recommendation (dated) | Mortality evidence | 2024–2026 change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breast | USPSTF B (Apr 2024): mammography every 2 years, ages 40–74; I for extra imaging in dense breasts | About 20% relative reduction; roughly 1 death prevented per 235 women invited over 20 years, with about 3 overdiagnosed cases per death prevented | MASAI RCT (Lancet, Feb 2026): AI-supported reading raised sensitivity from 73.8% to 80.5% at unchanged 98.5% specificity; FDA density notification required since Sep 2024 |
| Cervical | USPSTF A (Aug 2018), ages 21–65; Dec 2024 draft adding HPV self-collection not finalized | Established for cytology and HPV testing; WHO 90-70-90 elimination targets for 2030 | ACS (Dec 2025): start at 25, primary HPV every 5 years, self-collection acceptable; first FDA-approved at-home collection device (May 2025) |
| Colorectal | USPSTF A 50–75, B 45–49 (May 2021); blood tests not included | Stool tests and endoscopy reduce incidence and mortality; NordICC and COLONPREV show participation drives benefit | ACS (May 2026): ages 45–75, blood tests only for people who decline preferred tests; FDA approved SimpleScreen CRC (Jul 2026) after Shield (Jul 2024) |
| Lung | USPSTF B (Mar 2021): annual low-dose CT, ages 50–80, ≥20 pack-years, quit ≤15 years | NLST: 20% fewer lung cancer deaths; NELSON: 24% fewer in men at 10 years | Australia national programme from Jul 2025; only about 1 in 5 eligible US adults screened |
| Prostate | USPSTF C ages 55–69, D ≥70 (May 2018); update stalled | ERSPC at 23 years: 13% fewer prostate cancer deaths (RR 0.87); 456 men invited and 12 diagnosed per death prevented | UK NSC (May 2026): screen only men with a BRCA2 variant, ages 45–61; MRI-first diagnostic pathways |
No average-risk screening: ovarian (USPSTF D; UKCTOCS and PLCO showed no mortality benefit), skin (USPSTF I), gastric (national endoscopy programmes only in East Asia), esophageal (targeted evaluation for Barrett’s esophagus only) and liver, where surveillance with ultrasound ± AFP every six months is recommended only for people with cirrhosis or selected chronic hepatitis B.
US guideline status
In practice, professional societies are now moving ahead of the Task Force: the American Cancer Society updated cervical guidance in December 2025 and colorectal guidance in May 2026. Prostate screening and blood-based colorectal tests are the topics most likely to change when the reconstituted Task Force meets.
Blood tests and MCED
| Study or decision | Design | Key results | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| NHS-Galleri (ASCO, Jun 2026) | RCT, about 142,000 adults in England; 3 annual tests vs usual care | Primary stage III–IV endpoint not met (IRR 1.03, p=0.63); stage IV −14% (IRR 0.86); specificity 99.55%; PPV 52.0%; sensitivity 30.7% (54.7% for 12 deadly cancers) | First randomized MCED evidence; mixed. No mortality data yet |
| PATHFINDER 2 (Nature Medicine, Sep 2026) | Single-arm US cohort; 32,007 in performance analysis | PPV 60.3%; specificity 99.64%; sensitivity 39.3%; origin correct 91.3%; 53% of detected cancers stage I–II; 0.6% had invasive procedures | Accuracy and safety, not outcomes |
| FDA advisory panel (23 Sep 2026) | Galleri premarket approval application filed Jan 2026 | Safety 10–0; effectiveness 6–4; benefit-risk 7–2 (1 abstention) | FDA decision pending; the vote is not binding |
| Medicare MCED law (3 Feb 2026) | Public Law 119-75 | Allows Medicare coverage of FDA-approved or cleared MCED tests from 2028 at the earliest, with an age phase-in | Coverage cannot start until a test is FDA authorized |
| NCI Vanguard Study | Feasibility study, up to 24,000 people; Shield MCD and Avantect MCD | Recruiting | Groundwork for a mortality-powered randomized trial |
| Colorectal blood tests | Shield (FDA, Jul 2024); SimpleScreen CRC (FDA, Jul 2026) | Cancer sensitivity 81–83%; advanced precancerous lesions about 13–14%; specificity about 90% | Second-line option for people who decline stool tests or colonoscopy |
No professional society recommends MCED testing for routine screening. Expert reaction to NHS-Galleri was split: some called the stage IV signal promising, others warned against “moving the goal posts” after a missed primary endpoint. For how these tests work, see AI-driven biomarkers and early detection, cell-free DNA and liquid biopsy explained.
Protein biomarkers
| Marker | Guideline-supported role | Not recommended for | Key evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEA | Surveillance after curative colorectal cancer surgery (with CT); monitoring metastatic disease | Screening or diagnosis | ASCO: “not recommended as a screening test”; FACS trial: more curative surgery for recurrence, no clear survival gain |
| PSA | Entry point to a shared-decision, risk-stratified prostate pathway (PSA density, secondary tests, MRI before biopsy) | Unselected screening without shared decision-making; men 70+ (USPSTF D) | ERSPC 23-year mortality benefit; PRECISION: MRI-first pathway avoided biopsy in about 28% of men |
| AFP | Liver cancer surveillance with ultrasound every 6 months in cirrhosis (AASLD 2023) | General population screening | GALAD score validated in studies; holds FDA Breakthrough designation, not marketing authorization |
| CA-125 | Monitoring treatment and recurrence of ovarian cancer; limited high-risk use | Average-risk ovarian screening (USPSTF D) | UKCTOCS and PLCO: no reduction in ovarian cancer deaths; false positives led to surgery |
Protein markers are inexpensive and well characterized, which is why multi-analyte research panels still include them. See the Cancer Biomarker Atlas 2026, what is biochemical diagnostics and research markers such as the Thomsen-Friedenreich antigen.
Harms and limits
Point of care and OncoFirm™
Point-of-care quantitative immunoassays for CEA and PSA exist in several markets, but the published evidence is mostly small analytical-agreement studies, and none is known to be FDA cleared for point-of-care CEA or PSA use. OncoFirm™ is building its fluorescent lateral flow platform to meet the REASSURED benchmark for accessible diagnostics, using a small reader rather than a laboratory analyser, and to climb the evidence ladder one rung at a time.
Fluorescent lateral flow assays designed to report CEA (1–100 ng/mL) and PSA (0.5–50 ng/mL), with planned traceability to WHO international standards. Platform
Method comparison, precision, limit of detection, hook-effect and interference studies against laboratory immunoassays before any clinical claim. How LFAs work
Intended uses mirror the laboratory assays: CEA monitoring and PSA risk stratification under clinical direction. Point-of-care oncology
Clinical collaborations to generate independent evidence in the settings where tests would be used. Clinical collaborations
OncoFirm™ assays, reader and software are in development, have not been cleared or approved by the FDA or any other regulatory authority, are for research use only, are not for sale and make no screening or multi-cancer detection claims.
Decisions to watch
| Decision | Status on 1 Oct 2026 | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| FDA decision on Galleri | Pending after 23 Sep 2026 panel | Would be the first FDA-approved MCED test and the trigger for Medicare coverage |
| First meeting of the reconstituted USPSTF | No date announced | Cervical self-collection draft; prostate and blood-based colorectal topics |
| NHS-Galleri mortality follow-up | Not yet reported | The endpoint that would settle whether stage IV reduction saves lives |
| UK ministerial decision on targeted prostate screening | Awaiting decision on UK NSC May 2026 recommendation | First national PSA programme limited to BRCA2 carriers |
| Medicare MCED coverage | Law enacted; earliest start 2028 | Depends on FDA authorization of a test |
| NCI Vanguard Study | Recruiting | Feasibility of a definitive randomized MCED trial |
Guide directory
FAQ
Randomized trials show that screening reduces deaths from breast cancer (mammography), cervical cancer (HPV testing and cytology), colorectal cancer (stool tests and endoscopy), lung cancer in high-risk people (low-dose CT) and, more modestly, prostate cancer (PSA). No other cancer has an average-risk population screening programme recommended in the United States.
Not as of 1 October 2026. GRAIL filed the first premarket approval application for its Galleri test in January 2026, and on 23 September 2026 an FDA advisory panel voted 10–0 on safety, 6–4 on effectiveness and 7–2 with one abstention on benefit-risk. The FDA had not issued a decision at the time of writing.
In about 142,000 adults in England, adding three annual Galleri tests did not reduce stage III–IV cancers, the trial's primary endpoint (IRR 1.03). Stage IV diagnoses fell 14% as a secondary finding, specificity was 99.55% and positive predictive value 52%, but the test missed about two in three cancers that arose during screening. No mortality data are available yet.
Only PSA has a screening role, as the entry point to a shared-decision, risk-stratified prostate pathway that now includes MRI. AFP is used with ultrasound for liver cancer surveillance in people with cirrhosis. CEA is used to monitor colorectal cancer after treatment and is not recommended for screening. CA-125 screening did not reduce ovarian cancer deaths in large trials.
Earlier diagnosis can lengthen apparent survival without changing the date of death (lead-time bias), favour slow-growing tumours (length bias) and find cancers that would never have caused harm (overdiagnosis). In the UKCTOCS trial, ovarian screening shifted cancers to earlier stages yet did not reduce deaths. That is why cancer-specific mortality in randomized trials remains the reference standard.
Two blood tests are FDA approved: Guardant Shield (2024) and Freenome SimpleScreen CRC (July 2026). The American Cancer Society's May 2026 guideline includes them only for people who decline or do not complete stool tests or colonoscopy, because they detect few advanced precancerous lesions. A positive result needs a follow-up colonoscopy.
No. OncoFirm™ is developing quantitative fluorescent lateral flow assays for protein biomarkers such as CEA and PSA, intended for point-of-care measurement within guideline-defined clinical pathways. They are in development, have not been cleared or approved by the FDA or any other regulatory authority, are for research use only and are not for sale.
Sources
About this hub. Compiled by the OncoFirm™ Scientific Team from randomized trials, guideline documents, regulatory records and peer-reviewed analyses, all linked above. Each status line is dated and reflects public information as of 1 October 2026; the page is reviewed when a decision in the watch list changes. Where sources disagreed on a detail, we used the more conservative wording. OncoFirm™ has no affiliation with the companies or tests named. This page is for education and is not medical advice; screening decisions should be made with a clinician. OncoFirm™ assays are in development, have not been cleared or approved by the FDA and are not available for sale.
Clinicians, laboratories and research groups interested in validating quantitative point-of-care protein assays can reach the OncoFirm™ team. Collaboration inquiry · Investor inquiry